The Ghost of Mike Pence

Stop thinking linearly...

I think as we sit on the precipice of Trump picking his VP and now that we are well beyond the nomination process, it’s time to delve into the question of Trump’s VP. Predictions and preferences from months ago, before having the benefit of current information, shouldn’t cloud our view from here.

One of the main things clouding our vision is the overhang from the deep damage done by Michael Richard Pence. There is no question that Pence was Trump’s primary Judas in his first term. He himself undermined his boss while also bringing others into the administration that were actively working against the duly elected President.

At the time that Trump selected Pence, he had recently, technically, secured the nomination in 2016 but there was still an active campaign to deny him the official nomination at the convention. In historical terms, particularly within the power structure of the party, Trump was weak and needed to secure the establishment wing. Nothing Trump has accomplished over the subsequent 8 years could have been accomplished without securing the nomination then.

Pence used his connections to the establishmentarians as leverage to secure much more power, control and influence than is normally wielded by the Vice President, a role that, beyond breaking ties in the Senate, has very little official duties in the administration. From double crossing General Flynn to double crossing Trump by waiting to announce his intentions on 1/6 until Trump was standing on a stage delivering his speech that fateful day, Pence consistently put the screws to Trump and Trump world every chance he got.

The takeaway has been for many that Trump must select an uber MAGA VP in order to prevent a repeat of the damage that Pence wrought. That logic ignores that Pence was only able to use the power handed to him by Trump. From the day he handed his transition to Pence, Trump gave Pence key roles based, at least in part, on three main limiting factors: Trump had never operated inside of the unique world that was Washington DC, he was still learning how to navigate through the rules and limitations of actually being President and he had a very limited pool of people that he trusted and were politically viable to fulfill the jobs that he gave to Pence.

People look back and conclude that the role of the VP in 2025 would be a close approximation to the Pencian model from 2017-2020 but much has changed since then. Primarily, Trump is in a very strong position politically at this point. Against all assumptions and predictions Trump easily swept the primaries and is currently leading Biden nationwide and, in enough states, to easily secure a second chance at running the nation. Just how strong is Trump at this point? CNN’s Harry Enten explained this morning that Trump is stronger than any recent non-incumbent:

Trump has also cultivated relationships with strong Republicans that are now at his disposal. He has had the time to judge who he can trust and who must be kept at arm’s length. Given Trump’s history, I am confident that he has spent a lot of time looking at who would fit best in various roles. I say all of that to say that, in 2024, Trump doesn’t need a Mike Pence. He simply needs what a VP is supposed to be, a running mate who theoretically helps electorally and doesn’t hurt him in the media.

I have heard some put forth that Trump needs to pick a person so awful to the establishment that they would never consider assassinating him. I’ll say this about that. First, if they haven’t done it yet, and believe me they want him dead, then I’m not sure what they are waiting for. Also, the unique dynamic at play now where Trump can only be President for four years, makes assimilating the MAGA base and propelling Trump’s VP into the oval office after him the more attractive path for the power brokers.

Similar to the lawfare and show trials against Trump, killing him only will make the movement stronger. Co-opting him the way GHWB coopted the movement behind Reagan is the safest way to ensure their interests are served in the long run. Trump is not now, and never has before, made fear-based decisions. He is a lion. “I am the storm”.

Clearing all of that form the windshield, what do I see? There are two potential paths for Trump in selecting his VP. Pick a successor or pick a B actor for a bit role. Regardless of his choice, that person will not be handed power the way it was handed to Pence. Trump is evolved now. He doesn’t need that from a VP, and he has learned the risks involved in that kind of structure.

So, who? My guesses? If it’s Scott that implies the “B actor in a bit role” scenario where Tim focuses on empowerment zones and further expanding on the work that he did with Trump in the Senate on that bill. If it’s Burgum, it’s a blend of sorts between bit part and successor. To me, the person that would say definite successor is J.D. Vance. And the dark horse? Rubio.